By Kris Freeman, Sports Information Director, White House High School
WHITE HOUSE – It’s already week 10 of the high school football season, and playoff positioning is at a premium entering the last two weeks of the season. Because of the new bye week by TSSAA, the regular season now contains 11 weeks.
White House High School has clinched a playoff spot, but with much at stake the final two weeks, let’s take a look at the playoff possibilities.
REGION 5-4A (Top four advance)
White House – Strength Rating: 7th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 46th in Class 4-A. The Blue Devils control their own destiny. At 8-0, White House can clinch at least second with a victory over Montgomery Central tonight and guarantee a home playoff game. With two wins over Montgomery Central and Greenbrier, the Blue Devils would be the first team in Tennessee state high school football history to go from 0-10 to 10-0 (according to research). Defeated: Springfield, Portland, Heritage, Creek Wood. To play: Montgomery Central, Greenbrier. Crazy scenario: If White House beats Montgomery Central and Springfield beats Greenbrier, the Blue Devils would hold the overall record advantage in a three-way tie and would only need Springfield to defeat Creek Wood in week 11 to clinch the region title, no matter what happens with Greenbrier and White House. Most likely first-round playoff matchup: Chester County.
Greenbrier – Strength Rating: 8th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 38th in Class 4-A. The Bobcats are 7-1 (4-0) but have the toughest remaining schedule with games left against Springfield and White House. Greenbrier also controls its own destiny but HAS to win both games to clinch the region title, unlike White House who could win the title in a tiebreaker. If Greenbrier loses to Springfield, then the Bobcats would fall to third in almost every scenario. They cannot drop past third place but can finish first, second or third. Defeated: Portland, Creek Wood, Montgomery Central, Heritage. To play: Springfield, White House. Crazy scenario: Greenbrier loses to Springfield, but beats White House, and then Creek Wood defeats Springfield, ending the three-way tie and vaulting the Bobcats back to first place. Most likely first-round playoff matchup: Hardin County (home) or Jackson South Side (away).
Springfield – Strength Rating: 18th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 33rd in Class 4-A. The Yellow Jackets are 5-3 (3-1) and traditionally fare well against Greenbrier and can make a mess of the region standings with a win tonight over the Bobcats. Springfield has clinched a playoff berth, but where could be anywhere from first to fourth in the region. Here’s why: If Springfield were to lose to Greenbrier and Creek Wood, the Yellow Jackets may fall to fourth but Creek Wood would also have to beat Portland tonight. Defeated: Montgomery Central, Portland, Heritage. To play: Greenbrier, Creek Wood. Lost to: White House. Crazy scenario: Springfield loses to Greenbrier and Creek Wood, Creek Wood defeats Portland, and Springfield finishes fourth. Springfield has played the toughest schedule and therefore cannot win the region unless Montgomery Central beats White House and Greenbrier beats White House, and Springfield wins out. Likely first-round playoff matchup: at Jackson South Side or home against Hardin County.
Portland – Strength Rating: 37th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 19th in Class 4-A. The Panthers (2-7, 2-3) cannot move up higher than fourth, but can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Creek Wood. If Creek Wood beats Portland, then a three-way tie scenario is possible with Montgomery Central and Creek Wood for fourth place and the Panthers would be left out. Defeated: Montgomery Central, Heritage. To play: Creek Wood. Lost to: White House, Springfield, Greenbrier. Crazy scenario: Not much. The Panthers are kind of in a 50-50 spot. Win or lose, in or out. Likely first-round playoff matchup: at Lexington.
Montgomery Central – Strength Rating: 43rd in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 20th in Class 4-A. The Indians (1-7, 1-3) are in a horrible but simple spot. To get in, they have to beat White House AND White House Heritage and then hope Creek Wood beats Portland. That would give them the tiebreaker over Creek Wood, whom they upset. Otherwise, a three-way tie and they are out of the loop. Defeated: Creek Wood. To play: White House, White House Heritage. Lost to: Springfield, Greenbrier, Portland. Crazy scenario: Beating White House. By rankings, this would be a monumental upset but they still need help to get in. Likely first-round playoff matchup: at Lexington.
Creek Wood – Strength Rating: 25th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 32nd in Class 4-A. The Red Hawks need to beat Portland. At 1-3 (4-4), the Red Hawks would get in with a win over Portland if Montgomery Central loses out, or they would get in with a win over Portland if Montgomery Central wins one of two and causes a three-way tie, giving the Red Hawks the fourth spot on overall record. Lose to Portland, and it’s pretty well over for Creek Wood without a monumental upset of Springfield. Defeated: Heritage. To play: Portland and Springfield. Lost to: White House, Greenbrier, Montgomery Central. Crazy scenario: Creek Wood beats Portland AND Springfield, then the Red Hawks could jump to third but only if Greenbrier beats Springfield, too. Likely first-round playoff matchup: at Lexington.
White House Heritage – Strength Rating: 43rd in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 4th in Class 4-A. The Patriots are winless and are eliminated. They could be a spoiler for Montgomery Central and pick up their only win.
REGION 6-4A (Top four advance)
Lexington – Strength Rating: 14th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 26th in Class 4-A. The traditional playoff power in Region 6-4A is likely to win the region, but is just 5-3 (3-1) overall and lost a shocking game to the last place team, Liberty Magnet. Defeated: Hardin County, Jackson South Side, Jackson North Side. To play: Chester County. Lost to: Liberty Magnet. Crazy scenario: Loses to Chester County and creates a three-way tie mess with Hardin County and Chester County for second place. Likely first-round playoff matchup: Portland at home.
Jackson South Side – Strength Rating: 23rd in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 31st in Class 4-A. South Side is 4-4 (3-1) and still has a shot to win the region title if Chester County can upset Lexington. Otherwise, they will finish second after a win over Jackson North Side. North Side is 1-7 and unlikely to upset them. Defeated: Chester County, Hardin County, Liberty Magnet. Lost to: Lexington. To play: Jackson North Side. Crazy scenario: Wins the region by virtue of the above-mentioned Lexington upset by Chester County. Most likely first-round playoff matchup: Greenbrier or Springfield at home.
Hardin County – Strength Rating: 28th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 39th in Class 4-A. With a 5-4 (2-2) record, Hardin County lost to both Lexington and South Side and beat Chester County, so they are locked in to a likely finish in third. The only danger there would be a Chester County win over Lexington that vaults South Side into the top spot and forces a potential three-way tie for second. How messy could it be? Hardin County, Chester County and Lexington could all be 3-2 having beaten each other in round robin style. Then, the TSSAA can sort out that tiebreaker because I am not that smart. Defeated: Chester County, Jackson North Side. To play: Liberty Magnet. Lost to: Lexington, Jackson South Side. Crazy scenario: Hardin County gets upset by Liberty Magnet but stays third if Chester County loses to Lexington, and drops to fourth if Chester County beats Lexington. Likely first-round playoff matchup: at Greenbrier or at Springfield.
Chester County – Strength Rating: 26th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 35th in Class 4-A. Chester County is a likely fourth place finisher at 4-4 (2-2) with the potential region champion left to play. However, the above scenarios still all hold true so we won’t go over them again. It looks like they have clinched a playoff spot, however, having beaten the region’s final two teams already. Defeated: Jackson North Side, Liberty Magnet. To play: Lexington. Lost to: Jackson South Side, Hardin County. Crazy scenario: See above. Likely first-round playoff matchup: at White House.
Jackson North Side – Strength Rating: 40th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 8th in Class 4-A. North side is 1-7 (1-3) and is eliminated. They can only play spoiler for Jackson South Side.
Liberty Magnet – Strength Rating: 45th in Class 4-A. Schedule rating: 25th in Class 4-A. Liberty is 1-6 (1-3) and is eliminated. They have already played spoiler to Lexington but could put pressure on Hardin County but still can’t get in because of overall record.
Predicted Order of Finish:
Jackson South Side
Predicted first-round matchups on Nov. 3rd:
Chester County at White House
Hardin County at Greenbrier/Springfield
Greenbrier/Springfield at Jackson South Side
Portland at Lexington
Biggest Game Left:
White House at Greenbrier (Week 11)
Hardest Game Left to Call:
Springfield vs. Greenbrier (Week 10)
Biggest Potential Shockwave:
Creek Wood over Portland
Quiet Game to Watch:
White House Heritage vs. Montgomery Central
Game That Makes You Go….Maybe?
Chester County vs. Lexington
Who Are We Taking?
This is White House. I think we’re going to go with #BDP here. But with the potential tiebreaker scenario, it’s the most likely situation. All the Blue Devils have to do is win one of the two final home games and get a Springfield win over Greenbrier and Creek Wood, or just win both games and win it outright.
If the Bobcats beat Springfield and White House beats Montgomery Central, then next week is for all the marbles.