WHITE HOUSE – It’s been a tough year for the White House Blue Devils at 2-6 and 1-3 in Region 5-4A, but the playoff scenario is not mathematically over, and the BDP boys may control their own destiny.
With wins at Montgomery Central and Greenbrier, White House would finish fourth at 4-6 (3-3). Four teams make the postseason.
Creek Wood Red Hawks
Springfield Yellow Jackets
Greenbrier, Creek Wood
WH Heritage Patriots
Springfield, White House
Montgomery Central Indians
White House, WH Heritage
White House Blue Devils
Montgomery Central, Greenbrier
Here are the playoff scenarios as best we could break it down after week nine. Buckle up, because this is a bumpy ride and things are going to get messy.
The winner of Creek Wood at Springfield in week 11 is the Region 5-4A champion. Both of their games in week 10 will not affect FIRST place, since the winning team in week 11 could would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Creek Wood is first if they beat Springfield and second if they lose to Springfield. The Portland game does not matter for Creek Wood in any scenario. Creek Wood cannot finish third or fourth.
Springfield can drop to second, third or fourth with a loss to Greenbrier AND Creek Wood. Greenbrier would have to win two to overtake Springfield only if Springfield loses two. Here’s the wild card in that scenario: if White House Heritage also beat Montgomery Central, and Greenbrier won two and Springfield lost two, there would be a three-way tie for second at 4-2. Springfield, Greenbrier and White House Heritage would all get in, but I am not sure in what order.
THERE CANNOT BE A FOUR WAY TIE. Mathematically impossible.
Portland is eliminated.
White House can finish no higher than fourth.
White House Heritage appears to have clinched the playoffs in every single scenario and is most likely third.
White House is in with two wins over Montgomery Central and Greenbrier but cannot go any higher than fourth, even in a three-way tie for third I think White House would still be fourth at 3-3. Wins over Montgomery Central and Greenbrier would give Montgomery Central at least four losses and Greenbrier at least three. and White House would hold the tiebreaker over both, but lose any tiebreaker for third to White House Heritage.
The crazy scenario #1 – White House beats Montgomery Central and Greenbrier to finish 3-3. Greenbrier beats Springfield but loses to White House to finish 3-3. Montgomery Central loses to White House but beats White House Heritage to finish 2-4. White House Heritage finishes 3-3. That means Creek Wood and Springfield are first and second, and there would be a three-way tie at 3-3 between Greenbrier, White House and White House Heritage for third and one team would get left out. White House Heritage would have a head to head win over both. I think that would put Heritage third and White House fourth by both beating Greenbrier.
The crazy scenario #2 – White House loses to Montgomery Central but beats Greenbrier to finish 2-4. Montgomery Central beats White House but loses to White House Heritage to finish 2-4. Greenbrier loses to Springfield and loses to White House to finish 2-4. White House Heritage is 4-2. That means Creek Wood and Springfield are first and second, White House Heritage is third. Greenbrier, White House and Montgomery Central are in a three-way tie for fourth at 2-4 and two teams get left out. Head to head wouldn’t matter because Montgomery Central beat White House, White House beat Greenbrier and Greenbrier beat Montgomery Central. I have no idea who gets in. This is the one scenario where White House could get left out in a three-way tie.
The crazy scenario #3 – White House loses to Montgomery Central but beats Greenbrier to finish 2-4. Montgomery Central beats White House and White House Heritage to finish 3-3. Greenbrier loses to Springfield and White House to finish 2-4. White House Heritage is 3-3. Creek Wood and Springfield are first and second, White House Heritage is third and Montgomery Central is fourth.
The crazy scenario #4 – White House loses to Montgomery Central and Greenbrier to finish 1-5. Montgomery Central beats White House and White House Heritage to finish 3-3. Greenbrier loses to Springfield and beats White House to finish 3-3. White House Heritage is 3-3. That means Creek Wood and Springfield are first and second, and there is a three-way tie for third between White House Heritage, Greenbrier and Montgomery Central and one team gets left out. Like crazy scenario #1, White House Heritage has a win over both Greenbrier and Montgomery Central, and that would put Greenbrier fourth since they beat Montgomery Central also.
The crazy scenario #5 – White House beats Montgomery Central but loses to Greenbrier to finish 2-4. White House Heritage and Greenbrier could do no worse than three losses and they would get the third and fourth slots. If White House Heritage beats Montgomery Central OR Springfield beats Greenbrier, Heritage would be third and Greenbrier fourth. If Greenbrier beats Springfield AND White House and White House Heritage loses to Montgomery Central AND White House beats Montgomery Central, Greenbrier would be third and White House Heritage fourth.
If any of this is incorrect, I am happy for you to fix it because I have confused myself at this point.